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Richmond Fantasy Forecast

RICHMOND INTERNATIONAL RACEWAY

Crown Royal Presents The Heath Calhoun 400
Saturday, May 1, 2010 in Richmond, VA

It’s back to old-fashioned Saturday night at the races this weekend as Sprint Cup drivers head to Richmond Virginia for the running of the “Crown Royal Presents the Health Calhoun 400”. This ? mile oval is sized like a short track but races like a superspeedway. 400 laps are on tap at this low-banked (14 degrees), D-shaped oval.

The following drivers have the best chance of pulling out a top finish this weekend. My top twenty-five list utilizes an exclusive formula I’ve developed over years of analyzing races. It factors in drivers’ history at this track and similar tracks, key driver stats from this venue, and the ever-powerful momentum. Every driver/team will have the occasional “off” race. They can have a rough outing or two without being unduly harmed in the rankings. If they generally run in the top half of the field, they’ll be moving up the list.

TOP TWENTYFIVE
1) 11 Denny Hamlin
2) 24 Jeff Gordon
3) 48 Jimmie Johnson
4) 5 Mark Martin
5) 18 Kyle Busch
6) 2 Kurt Busch
7) 14 Tony Stewart
8) 39 Ryan Newman
9) 33 Clint Bowyer
10) 29 Kevin Harvick
11) 31 Jeff Burton
12) 16 Greg Biffle
13) 56 Martin Truex Jr.
14) 99 Carl Edwards
15) 20 Joey Logano
16) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
17) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya
18) 77 Sam Hornish Jr.
19) 9 Kasey Kahne
20) 12 Brad Keselowski
21) 17 Matt Kenseth
22) 00 David Reutimann
23) 83 Brian Vickers
24) 47 Marcos Ambrose
25) 1 Jamie McMurray

RICHMOND DRIVER STATS
Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx/March of Dimes Toyota)
? One win, four top fives, five top 10s; two poles
? Average finish of 8.5
? Series-best Average Running Position of 4.6
? Series-best Driver Rating of 121.0
? Series-high 352 Fastest Laps Run
? Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 117.581 mph
? 3,154 Laps in the Top 15 (98.3%), fifth-most
? 204 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
? Two wins, 13 top fives, 22 top 10s; five poles
? Average finish of 14.5
? Average Running Position of 13.6, 10th-best
? Driver Rating of 96.0, seventh-best
? 186 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 116.951 mph, 10th-fastest
? 2,738 Laps in the Top 15 (68.3%), sixth-most
? 204 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s/Kobalt Tools Chevrolet)
? Three wins, four top fives, four top 10s; two poles
? Average finish of 18.3
? Driver Rating of 85.7, 13th-best
? 137 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 116.803 mph, 13th-fastest
? 186 Quality Passes, 12th-most

Mark Martin (No. 5 GoDaddy.com Chevrolet)
? One win, 17 top fives, 27 top 10s; four poles
? Average finish of 11.8
? Average Running Position of 12.6, seventh-best
? Driver Rating of 96.1, sixth-best
? 143 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 117.082 mph, sixth-fastest
? 2,720 Laps in the Top 15 (67.8%), seventh-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M’s Toyota)
? One win, eight top fives, eight top 10s
? Average finish of 6.0
? Average Running Position of 7.7, third-best
? Driver Rating of 111.5, third-best
? 266 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 117.431 mph, second-fastest
? 3,537 Laps in the Top 15 (88.2%), second-most
? 272 Quality Passes, second-most

Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
? One win, three top fives, six top 10s
? Average finish of 17.8
? Average Running Position of 13.3, ninth-best
? Driver Rating of 97.0, fifth-best
? 261 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
? 435 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 117.201 mph, fifth-fastest
? 2,669 Laps in the Top 15 (66.6%), eighth-most
? 271 Quality Passes, third-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Old Spice Chevrolet)
? Three wins, nine top fives, 15 top 10s
? Average finish of 10.4
? Average Running Position of 10.2, fourth-best
? Driver Rating of 102.2, fourth-best
? 182 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
? 434 Green Flag Passes, 13th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 117.293 mph, fourth-fastest
? 3,166 Laps in the Top 15 (79.0%), fourth-most
? 264 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Ryan Newman (No. 39 Tornados Chevrolet)
? One win, five top fives, 10 top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 11.6
? Average Running Position of 11.0, fifth-best
? Driver Rating of 93.7, eighth-best
? Average Green Flag Speed of 116.982 mph, seventh-fastest
? 3,219 Laps in the Top 15 (80.3%), third-most
? 236 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Clint Bowyer (No. 33 Cheerios/Hamburger Helper Chevrolet)
? One win, one top five, four top 10s
? Average finish of 10.0
? Average Running Position of 12.4, sixth-best
? Driver Rating of 92.3, ninth-best
? 457 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 116.934 mph, 11th-fastest
? 2,277 Laps in the Top 15 (70.9%), 13th-most
? 244 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet)
? One win, four top fives, 11 top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 12.6
? Average Running Position of 7.2, second-best
? Driver Rating of 113.6, second-best
? 335 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 117.426 mph, third-fastest
? Series-high 3,730 Laps in the Top 15 (93.0%)
? Series-high 321 Quality Passes

Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)
? Two top fives, five top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 15.6
? Average Running Position of 15.9, 11th-best
? Driver Rating of 86.2, 12th-best
? 89 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 116.893 mph, 12th-fastest
? 2,325 Laps in the Top 15 (58.0%), 11th-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 AMP Energy Drink/National Guard Chevrolet)
? Three wins, eight top fives, 10 top 10s
? Average finish of 12.3
? Average Running Position of 12.9, eighth-best
? Driver Rating of 90.9, 10th-best
? 209 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
? 541 Green Flag Passes, third-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 116.956 mph, ninth-fastest
? 2,339 Laps in the Top 15 (58.3%), 10th-most
? 239 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Kasey Kahne (No. 9 Budweiser Ford)
? One win, two top fives, five top 10s; one pole
? Average finish of 18.0
? Average Running Position of 16.5, 13th-best
? Driver Rating of 89.7, 11th-best
? 231 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
? 477 Green Flag Passes, eighth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 116.973 mph, eighth-fastest
? 2,285 Laps in the Top 15 (57.0%), 12th-most
? 214 Quality Passes, ninth-most

RICHMOND INTERNATIONAL RACEWAY HIGHLIGHTS
? The first NASCAR Sprint Cup race was April 19, 1953, won by Lee Petty.
? Jeff Gordon (five) leads active drivers with five poles.
? 47 different drivers have posted victories at Richmond, led by Richard Petty (13).
? Dale Earnhardt Jr., Tony Stewart and Jimmie Johnson (three) lead active race winners.
? 61 of 107 races have been won from the top five starting positions, including 21 from the pole.
? 11 of the past 13 races have been won from the top 10.
? The best average finishes of active drivers are Kyle Busch (6.0), Denny Hamlin (8.5), and Tony Stewart (10.4).
? Seven of the last nine races have had a margin of victory less than one second.

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