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Michigan Fantasy Forecast

MICHIGAN INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY

LifeLock 400, Sunday June 15, 2008

NASCAR Sprint Cup drivers head to Michigan International Speedway in Brooklyn Michigan this weekend for the running of the LifeLock 400. 200 laps are scheduled on this two-mile superspeedway. With its wide sweeping 18-degree corners, long straightaways, and 12-degree tri-oval front stretch, there?s plenty of room to pass and plenty of speed.

As I see it, the following drivers have the best chance of pulling out a top finish this Sunday. I have compiled my ranking by analyzing drivers? success at this track and other similar tracks such as California and Las Vegas, then adding momentum into the mix by including results from the last month of racing.

TOP TWENTY
1) 99 Carl Edwards
2) 17 Matt Kenseth
3) 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
4) 16 Greg Biffle
5) 18 Kyle Busch
6) 24 Jeff Gordon
7) 48 Jimmie Johnson
8) 1 Martin Truex Jr.
9) 20 Tony Stewart
10) 9 Kasey Kahne
11) 2 Kurt Busch
12) 31 Jeff Burton
13) 11 Denny Hamlin
14) 6 David Ragan
15) 8 Mark Martin
16) 83 Brian Vickers
17) 29 Kevin Harvick
18) 5 Casey Mears
19) 12 Ryan Newman
20) 43 Bobby Labonte

It?s no secret Carl Edwards loves running the 1.5- and 2-mile tracks on the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series schedule. Consider that of his 10 career Cup wins, seven have come at tracks measuring 1.5 or 2 miles (the other three came at Bristol, Dover and Pocono). Also, he has three wins this season, all at 1.5 or 2-mile tracks.

Now, the series heads to another 2-mile track, Michigan International Speedway, which clearly is good news for Edwards. He is excellent there. In the past six races, Edwards has four top fives and five top 10s, including a win in last season?s spring race. Also, last year Michigan was a slump buster for Edwards when he ended a 52-race winless drought with his victory.

SELECTED MICHIGAN DRIVER STATS
Carl Edwards (No. 99 Office Depot Ford)
? One win, four top fives, six top 10s
? Average finish of 7.3
? Series-best Average Running Position of 7.9
? Series-best Driver Rating of 112.3
? 81 Fastest Laps Run, tied for third-best
? Series-fastest Average Green Flag Speed of 175.550 mph
? Series-high 998 (88.2%) Laps in the Top 15
? Series-high 329 Quality Passes

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 DEWALT Ford)
? Two wins, seven top fives, 11 top 10s
? Average finish of 9.7
? Average Running Position of 13.1, ninth-best
? Driver Rating of 104.1, fifth-best
? 48 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 175.272 mph, fifth-fastest
? 821 (72.5%) Laps in the Top 15, fifth-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 AMP Energy/National Guard Chevrolet)
? Two top fives, five top 10s; two poles
? Average finish of 17.2
? Average Running Position of 11.7, seventh-best
? Driver Rating of 98.3, sixth-best
? 56 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-best
? 421 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
? 792 (70.0%) Laps in the Top 15, eighth-most
? 281 Quality Passes, second-most

Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)
? Two wins, four top five, six top 10s
? Average finish of 13.4
? Average Running Position of 9.7, third-best
? Driver Rating of 105.4, third-best
? 88 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
? 424 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 175.329 mph, third-fastest
? 908 (80.2%) Laps in the Top 15, third-most
? 279 Quality Passes, third-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
? Two wins, 15 top fives, 20 top 10s; five poles
? Average finish of 10.5
? Average Running Position of 11.3, fifth-best
? Driver Rating of 97.0, eighth-best
? 60 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
? 811 (71.6%) Laps in the Top 15, sixth-most
? 216 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe?s Chevrolet)
? Two top fives, five top 10s
? Average finish of 14.8
? Average Running Position of 8.8, second-best
? Driver Rating of 104.7, fourth-best
? 81 Fastest Laps Run, tied for third-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 175.349 mph, second-fastest
? 932 (82.3%) Laps in the Top 15, second-most
? 254 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Tony Stewart (No. 20 Home Depot Toyota)
? One win, eight top fives, 12 top 10s
? Average finish of 12.9
? Average Running Position of 14.9, 10th-best
? Driver Rating of 95.7, ninth-best
? 43 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
? Average Green Flag Speed of 174.926 mph, eighth-fastest
? 793 (70.1%) Laps in the Top 15, seventh-most
? 226 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
? Two wins, six top fives
? Average finish of 18.9
? Average Running Position of 10.7, fourth-best
? Driver Rating of 106.8, second-best
? Series-high 93 Fastest Laps Run
? Average Green Flag Speed of 175.275 mph, fourth-fastest
? 876 (77.4%) Laps in the Top 15, fourth-most
? 244 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota)
? One top five, two top 10s
? Average finish of 10.0
? Average Running Position of 11.3
? Driver Rating of 97.1, seventh-best
? Average Green Flag Speed of 174.926 mph, seventh-best
? 74.3% (544 total) Laps in the Top 15, fifth-best
? 184 Quality Passes (average of 46.0 per race), fourth-best average

MICHIGAN HIGHLIGHTS
? Donnie Allison won the first pole at Michigan in 1970, a race that was won by Cale Yarborough.
? The race winner has started from the pole 15 times, the most productive starting position.
? 61 of 77 races have been won from a top-10 starting position, including 44 from the first four spots. However, five of the past seven race winners started outside the top 10.
? The Wood Brothers have won 11 races ? more than any other organization. Their last victory was in 1991 with Dale Jarrett as the driver.
? There have been five different Coors Light Pole winners and five different race winners in the past five races.
? Carl Edwards has finished on the lead lap in all seven of his Michigan races.

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