Mash The Gas: Southern 500 Preview

The start the 2014 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Bojangles’ Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway. [Credit: NASCAR Via Getty Images]

By Dan Margetta and John Wiedemann

All is well in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series world this weekend as the Bojangles Southern 500 returns to its rightful schedule slot on Labor Day Weekend at the Darlington Raceway.

The famed Southern 500 was moved from the traditional date after 2003 and its popular return to Sunday evening has been marked many teams sporting “throwback” schemes on the cars.

The Southern 500 will also be the first race conducted with the low downforce aero rules package matched with a specifically built Goodyear tire (with old school white lettering by the way).

The anticipation is for an exciting race with the Chase battles in full swing and here are some drivers to watch Sunday night in the Bojangles Southern 500…

Kyle Busch (Dan Margetta)
Kyle Busch has to be the driver everyone will be chasing this weekend at Darlington as the track really seems to suit his style. He has finished sixth or better in his last three Darlington races and has a win here in 2008. Busch also won at Kentucky, the last race the low downforce aero rules were in place, and he enters this weekend as a 5-1 favorite. Busch has solidified his Chase position in recent weeks and he should be free to try to tame “The Lady in Black” Sunday night. Since his return from his injuries, Busch has managed to match his aggressiveness with just the right amount of intelligence and it has paid off with multiple victories. A hard charging aggressive Kyle Busch beat Darlington in 2008 by bouncing off the walls in a street fight and a still aggressive but wiser Kyle Busch will be much more dangerous Sunday night and I’m saying he’s the guy to beat in the Southern 500.

Jimmy Johnson (John Wiedemann)
In sixteen Darlington races, Jimmie Johnson has three wins, nine top five finishes and an average finish of 8.4. Johnson is my pick to win the race while battling with the Joe Gibbs Racing teammates all night long. Johnson needs to step out of the funk that the #48 team has been in and return to being the top team in the series. Coming off a Bristol race where he finished 4th, his first top five since the June 7th race at Pocono, Johnson could start a streak to build momentum into the Chase. Tied with Kyle Busch for wins, Johnson sits on top of the Chase grid, but that push into the playoffs is what he needs right now and Darlington could just be the track to provide it.

Matt Kenseth (DM)
Matt Kenseth is the definition of being aggressive and smart and that’s why I’m listing him as one of the drivers to watch Sunday night. Kenseth has been on a roll of late, winning two of the last four races and he finished a strong fifth at Kentucky. Since coming over to the Joe Gibbs Racing organization, Kenseth’s Darlington races have resulted in a win (2013) and a fourth place finish last year. He enters this year’s Southern 500 at 7-1 odds to win and he should not be counted out as his driving style of keeping the leaders in sight until coming on strong at the finish, mimics the great David Pearson, who just happens to have the most wins at Darlington (10). If you’re looking to pick a winner this week (that’s not named Kyle Busch), Matt Kenseth is your guy.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (JW)
If anyone is wound up for this race and excited by the old school paint schemes, it’s Dale Earnhardt Jr. Junior also should be considered a favorite to visit victory lane at Darlington as well. In twenty races at Darlington, Earnhardt has yet to win but has finished in the top ten nine times and has a 14.3 average finish. Those stats may not sound spectacular but it is difficult to always be good at the “Lady In Black” and Juniors stats are amongst the top of active drivers at Darlington. Junior is running well as of late with seven top ten finishes in his last ten races including his win in at Daytona and three top fives. Don’t count him out, able to have fun at a retro style race is right in Earnhardt’s wheelhouse.

Denny Hamlin (DM)
Does anyone see a pattern here? I really like the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas this week and Denny Hamlin comes in at enticing 8-1 odds to win at Darlington. Hamlin holds an impressive 6.9 average finishing position at the “Track Too Tough to Tame” and he does own a single Darlington victory which came in 2010. He also had a good run at Kentucky where he finished third racing under the low downforce aero package that will be used this weekend. Hamlin has yet to experience racing at Darlington on Labor Day weekend as the race was moved prior to his rookie season and the throwback scheme on his #11 honors five-time Southern 500 winner Cale Yarborough. Maybe Cale’s colors can carry Hamlin to another Southern 500 victory on Sunday night.

Clint Bowyer (JW)
Currently in the Chase Grid bubble position with two races to go, Clint Bowyer isn’t really worried about points as much as he is concerned that someone lower in the standings will get their first win of the season and knock him out. Bowyer’s 35 point lead is pretty safe and if he could get a win this weekend at Darlington or next week at Richmond, he would lock himself in the Chase. So, what are his chances this weekend? In nine Southern 500’s, Bowyer has one pole, a best finish of 9th and average finish of 20th. Not really the stats that he would like to see, although he has two victories at next week’s track, Richmond. In the last ten races, Bowyer has been running really well considering all the turmoil at Michael Waltrip Racing. Bowyer has seven top tens in the last ten events along with two top fives including fifth last weekend at Bristol. Will he win this weekend? I doubt it, but look for a solid points day and keep him in mind next weekend.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (DM)
Can a 500-1 long shot win at Darlington? Before you say “no” you better ask Regan Smith who won the 2011 Southern 500 at 500-1 odds. This year’s 500-1 shot is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and while his Darlington record is somewhat mediocre (finishes of 18th and 20th in two starts), his throwback blue and gold David Pearson #17 scheme is enough to make him my long shot pick this week. It’s quite possible the racing gods will smile upon Stenhouse and his scheme honoring “The Silver Fox” just for the sake of tradition and quite frankly, I just think it would just be really cool if the best throwback scheme on throwback weekend could some way or somehow find its way to victory lane at Darlington.

Kasey Kahne (JW)
Last year, Kasey Kahne came into Labor Day weekend with some worry about making the Chase. At the end of the weekend, that worry was gone, Kahne won the race at Atlanta to secure a spot in the playoffs. Kahne could do the same thing this weekend with a victory at the Southern 500. Kahne has four poles at Darlington and could grab the victory which would be his first at the track. Hendrick Motorsports knows how to win at Darlington with a series leading 14 victories. If Kahne can get some of that magic from teammates Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson, he just might pull off another back-against-the-wall victory to make the Chase. Don’t forget to keep an eye on some of the other drivers that could pull off the same feat: Aric Almirola, Greg Biffle, Austin Dillon and Kyle Larson.

 

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