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Mash The Gas: New Hampshire

Matt Kenseth celebrated the win last year at New Hampshire, can he do it again this year? [Chris Trotman/NASCAR via Getty Images]

 

by Dan Margetta and John Wiedemann

It’s Chase Race number two in the battle for the NASCAR Sprint Cup as the New Hampshire International Speedway hosts the Sylvania 300 Sunday afternoon.

New Hampshire is a flat one mile oval that has similar characteristics to Phoenix and Richmond and usually drivers who run strong at those two tracks perform very well here.  Handling, as usual, will be key as restarts and the bumps in turn three will be a huge challenge to drivers that can’t get the power to the track or their cars to flow through the center of the variable slightly (2-7 degree) banked turns.

The Sylvania 300 is the middle race of the opening “Challenger Round” of The Chase and for those drivers who fell behind last week at Chicago, it is imperative to leave New Hampshire with a win or top ten finish. When the series leaves Dover next weekend, four drivers will find themselves eliminated from a shot at the championship.

The Sprint Cup stars are back at it for Chase Race #2 and here are some drivers and storylines to watch on Sunday…

 

Brad Keselowski

(Dan Margetta):  Can anyone stop Brad Keselowski? After two consecutive wins, Brad Keselowski comes to New Hampshire brimming with confidence as the early championship favorite with everyone’s eyes set on derailing his winning streak. Keselowski is listed as a heavy 7-5 odds on favorite this week as his worst finish on similar tracks this season was fourth. He won in dominating fashion at Richmond and in the first New Hampshire race this season and while he is already locked into the next round, this team does not know how to take it easy as evidenced by Keselowki’s three wide pass for the lead at Chicago. The Keselowski winning streak could definitely continue at New Hampshire.

Jeff Gordon

(John Wiedemann):  Jeff Gordon could be the guy to knock Brad Keselowski off of his perch.  Gordon was one of the hottest drivers in the series late in the regular season.  In 39 races at New Hampshire Gordon has an average finish of 11th with three wins, 10 top five and 18 top ten finishes.  Gordon leads the series in average running position, fastest laps run, average green flag speed, laps in top 15 and quality passes.  Currently in second place and just seven points behind Keselowski in the standings, Gordon is a safe bet to make the next round in the Chase and a great bet to accomplish that with a win this weekend.  Gordon continues to run like the Gordon of ten years ago and week in/week out will be a contender.

Kevin Harvick

DM:  Kevin Harvick’s dominating Phoenix victory seems light years away, but he still remains one of the fastest drivers on the track each and every week. He’s listed at 6-1 odds for New Hampshire and last week’s crew swap with Tony Stewart’s team seems to have paid off with a strong Chicago finish despite one pit miscue. Currently fourth in the points and relatively safe to make the cut next week, Harvick would like to recapture the Phoenix dominance and automatically punch his ticket to the next round with a New Hampshire victory.

Kyle Busch

JW:  Joe Gibbs Racing started the Chase strong in Chicago with top ten runs for each of the three drivers.  They also accomplished the same feat in the July race at New Hampshire.  Kyle Busch captured the pole for that race and ran in the top five for most of the event leading 62 laps and finishing second to Brad Keselowski.  This weekend should provide the same success or even better for Busch as he should be considered a favorite to grab the win after three consecutive runner-up finishes at New Hampshire.  Is the JGR team back and ready to contend for the Championship?  Are Kyle’s issues with crew chief Dave Rogers more media hype than affecting team performance? So far, in just one race, the answers looks to be positive.  This weekend should tell the story one way or the other.

Matt Kenseth

DM:  The defending race champion comes to New Hampshire riding a common season long theme…strong consistent runs without a victory. Listed at 12-1 odds this week, his finishes at similar tracks have been solid with two top fives in four races. Last week Kenseth ran strong in the first half of the race before the car’s handling was dialed out trying to keep up with the changing conditions en route to a tenth place finish. This team will have to do better this week if they wish to solidify their place in the next round. The new stronger Toyota engine package coupled with the recent lightening quick pit stops could provide the difference.

Kyle Larson

JW:  One of the non Chase contenders making a lot of noise is Kyle Larson.  Last weekends run and shot at victory made for an interesting storyline at Chicagoland.  Larson was also a strong contender at the July New Hampshire race with a third place run after improving all race long and keeping the #42 Chevrolet in the top ten for the second half of the race.  With eight finishes of 12th or better in the last nine races, Larson has returned from a June slump and Chase participant or not, Kyle is going to race to the front of the pack.  A possible spoiler for the Chase drivers, it is highly likely that at New Hampshire this weekend Larson will pick up his first Sprint Cup Series victory.

Kurt Busch

DM:  Last week Kurt Busch and the #41 team rebounded admirably from early race miscues to earn a top ten finish. They’ll need to keep up that consistency this week to remain in Chase contention. Kurt Busch is listed at 25-1 odds this week and his best Phoenix-Richmond finish this season was seventh. However,  Busch does have a flat track victory this year at Martinsville. Busch has been known to step up when the chips are down and New Hampshire should be a key race to the #41 team’s championship run.

Ryan Newman

JW:  The bottom four drivers in the Chase standings will be eliminated after the Dover event next week.  Currently Ryan Newman is in the bottom four, just a point behind Carl Edwards.  This weekend should remedy that situation as Newman has a great track record at New Hampshire.  In 25 races at the one mile track, Newman has scored three wins and has an average finish of 13.6.  Newman struggled mid race at Chicagoland after a second place start.  The team rebounded late for a 15th place finish.  More will be expected of the #31 team and a top five run like they had at New Hampshire in July, their second best finish of the season so far, would move Newman out of the danger zone and up the standings nicely.

Carl Edwards

DM:  Carl Edwards rolls into New Hampshire on the edge of the danger zone as he holds the 12th and final points position before the cut off, just one point ahead of Ryan Newman. A good New Hampshire finish is a must for this team and they do have two top ten finishes on similar tracks this season. The Vegas oddsmakers do not show much confidence in Edwards as they list him at 40-1 odds. Edwards is a racer however and the team is stronger than many of their finishes this year. Look for an extra effort this week from the #99 team as they try to secure their driver a spot in the next Chase round.

Joey Logano

JW:  Besides a victory at New Hampshire in 2009, his first Sprint Cup Series win, Joey Logano hasn’t had huge success at the track.  Three finishes of 35th or worse have hurt his average finish of 19.3.  But, Logano was running second in the July race this year and having a solid day.  That was until he crashed with Morgan Shepherd and ended his day in 40th place.  Teammate Brad Keselowski won the race and it could have been a Team Penske battle for the win if it wasn’t for Logano’s misfortune.  Dealing with ill handling cars will again be key to finishing well at New Hampshire.  While most drivers will respect the Chase drivers during the race, it will be up to drivers and spotters to pick their passing spots wisely.  A 40th place finish in a Chase round could well wipe out any chances of advancing to the next.

 

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