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Mash The Gas – Dover Preview

The Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship rolls into Dover, Delaware as the Dover International Speedway hosts the AAA 400.

Nicknamed “The Monster Mile”, the lightening quick high-banked Dover circuit is known for its high speed, close quarter racing. The track is “self-cleaning” in that the high banked turns send out of control cars off the track surface toward the inside where they are met by an inside retaining wall. That wall has a tendency to ricochet those cars back onto the speedway creating a reputation where it is very easy to get caught up in another driver’s misfortune and that definitely has to be on the minds of the 12 drivers competing for the title.

The green flag for the AAA 400 is scheduled to fly Sunday afternoon, September 30th, at 2:15pm eastern.

Favorites:
Jimmie Johnson
Dan Margetta: Johnson has ruled “The Monster Mile” over the last few years and boasts seven wins at the track including the tour’s last stop here in June. He holds the best driver rating among the competitors and comes into Dover leading the point standings by a single point over Brad Keselowski. The #48 team means business this weekend as they have brought their best car to Dover this week as this is the same chassis that won here in June and then won the Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis. The third race for this car was two weeks ago at Chicago where Johnson dominated the event before finishing second to Keselowski.

John Wiedemann: If you are not picking Jimmie Johnson this weekend, you’re nuts. Johnson won seven times in twenty-one races at Dover. Need more? Look back to earlier this year where he dominated the race, leading 289 of 400 laps and ended up in victory lane wearing a multi-colored wig. The battle at Dover may just be for second place. But, you never know what could happen and that’s why they run the race…. So Johnson can spank them again.

Matt Kenseth
JW: Dover is Matt Kenseth’s best chance to get back into title contention. Running at the track where he made his first Cup start has normally been benefit to Kenseth. Currently almost a race behind (35 points) championship leader Johnson, Kenseth can not afford to lose any more ground.

DM: If Kenseth and the #17 team are serious about making a championship run in their final season together, this is the weekend to make a statement. Dover is one of Kenseth’s favorite tracks on the circuit, having scored two career victories here and posting top five finishes in his last three Dover races. On the other hand, Dover has also provided some bad luck when it comes to Chase races as flat tires and an unexpected trip into the pit road water barrels have seriously derailed championship runs in the past.

Brad Keselowski
DM: Keselowski owns a dismal average finishing position of 17th at Dover but this is one of those seasons where everything seems to be coming together for this team and past statistics can be thrown out the window. Keselowski has a win this season at Bristol, another high-banked concrete track and he has proven to be Jimmie Johnson’s main competition for the championship so far during the Chase. Penske cars have had success at Dover in the past so Keselowski can’t be overlooked when it comes to handicapping this weekend’s AAA 400.

Denny Hamlin
JW: Even though he slightly backed off of his Twitter post saying that he would win at New Hampshire, he went out and dominated the race. Now comes Dover, a track that Hamlin despises and even said that he can win on every track in the Chase, other than Dover. Hamlin’s average finish of 20th over 13 races at Dover may be a bad sign. But there is hope even with a bad finish, all he has to do is look at Tony Stewart who finished 25th at Dover in the Chase last year and still won the cup. And if Hamlin finishes well…. Look out.

DM: Hamlin called his shot last week and won at New Hampshire but Dover is a place where he’ll probably remain quiet. His best finish here is a fourth and he’s suffered finishes 16th or worse in his last three Dover starts. The main problem with this team throughout the season has been consistency and this weekend will be a test to see if they can retain their momentum following the New Hampshire victory.

Jeff Gordon
DM: Gordon is another driver who has had success at Dover, capturing four wins here although the last one came way back in 2001. He raced well in the June race and like the rest of his season has gone, comes into Dover in desperate need of a win to keep his title hopes alive. The #24 team has been one of the strongest on the circuit over the last five weeks and if they can shake the bad luck that has plagued them this season, they can get back into the championship mix starting Sunday at Dover.

Mark Martin
JW: The #55 car has been in the mix all season long while having the driving duties shared by Mark Martin and Brian Vickers. Currently, the MWR #55 is 14th in the owners points sandwiched between Kyle Busch and Ryan Newman, pretty good company. Arguably, one could say that the team would have been in the Chase mix if either Martin or Vickers drove the entire year. Think about that, Michael Waltrip Racing could have had three drivers in the Chase this season. Expect Mark Martin to have the #55 in the front of the pack again this week at Dover.

Kyle Busch
DM: Busch has to be considered the favorite of all the “Non-Chasers” to score the victory on Sunday as Dover’s tough, fast make-up suits his driving style well. Busch has been strong in the last two races but reliability issues, the same things that kept him out of the Chase dance, continue to haunt this team. Busch has two Dover victories and has finished in the top ten in four of the last five Dover races.

Martin Truex Jr.
JW: One more Michael Waltrip Racing driver to think about this weekend is Martin Truex Jr., might as well just add Clint Bowyer to the list too. Truex Jr. hasn’t won a race yet this season and currently sits tenth in the standings 34 points back. Like Kenseth, now is the time for Truex Jr. to make a move. Truex Jr’s lone Sprint Cup Series victory came at Dover in 2007. Getting his second win at Dover could put him back in the Championship mix.

Chase Standings heading into Dover:
Jimmie Johnson 2096 points, moved into the lead by 1 point
Brad Keselowski 2095 points, dropped to second but keeping it close
Denny Hamlin 2089 points, victory moves him out of fourth place tie and 7 points behind leader
Tony Stewart 2086 points, dropped a spot and 2 points to 10 points behind leader
Kasey Kahne 2081 points, remains 15 points behind leader
Clint Bowyer 2081 points, also remains 15 points behind leader
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 2070 points, drops 9 points to 26 points behind leader
Kevin Harvick 2065 points, moves up two spots but 31 points behind
Greg Biffle 2063 points, dropped a spot and is 33 points behind
Martin Truex Jr. 2062 points, dropped a spot and is 34 points behind leader
Matt Kenseth 2061 points, now 35 points behind
Jeff Gordon 2051 points, still in the Chase cellar but picked up 2 points to 45 points behind

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