Mash The Gas: Chicagoland

The 16 drivers of the NASCAR Chase for the Sprint Cup.  [Credit:  Jeff Zelevansky/NASCAR via Getty Images]

By Dan Margetta and John Wiedemann

The Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup begins this weekend as the Chicagoland Speedway hosts the MyAFibStory.com 400 Sunday afternoon.

No one really knows what to expect over the next ten weeks as this is the inaugural run of the current points format. For the first time, the bottom drivers in the standings will be eliminated after each round consisting of three races, which puts a premium on race wins and strong finishes.

The Chicagoland Speedway is a 1.5 mile circuit similar to the types of tracks that make up a majority of the schedule and so far in 2014, Penske Racing and Hendrick Motorsports drivers have claimed six victories on the 1.5 milers.

These are the drivers to watch on Sunday as the Chase officially kicks off and the run to the Sprint Cup is on…

Matt Kenseth
(Dan Margetta): After several strong runs where he has completed 99.9% of the laps, Matt Kenseth finally broke through to victory lane at Chicago by winning this race a year ago. This year has been a different story however, as he has yet to win and enters the Chase seeded 14th, earning his slot by points. While at 12-1 odds, Kenseth is not on a lot of radars this weekend but a look back on this team’s performance shows marked improvement with three straight top five finishes on 1.5 mile tracks including a second place at Atlanta a few weeks ago. Kenseth and the #20 team also used on of their allotted tests at Chicago and should have valuable data for Sunday. Last year, his car traveled the smoothest through the track bumps entering turn three and he should be one to watch on Sunday.

Kevin Harvick
(John Wiedemann): Kevin Harvick could be on the path to his first ever championship in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series. Clearly the Stewart-Haas Racing Chevrolets are among the fastest cars at the track each and every weekend, but some malady seems to fall on the team and knock them down. With two cars in the Chase, Harvick and Kurt Busch, the entire emphasis of the four car teams goes to those drivers. This was evident this week when it was announced that the pit crew of Tony Stewart’s team was being swapped with Harvick’s crew. The crew issue has been simmering for a while this season and really heated up in Richmond. A crew swap may seem like a big deal but at this point the driver is thinking that the pit stops can’t get any worse. Will the swap and a fast car translate into a Chicagoland Chase win for Harvick? I believe it will.

Brad Keselowski
DM: A 4-1 favorite to win this weekend at Chicago, Brad Keselowski definitely has momentum on his side following his dominating Richmond victory a week ago. Keselowski has also been consistently strong on the 1.5 mile tracks with victories at Las Vegas and Kentucky. This team’s performance this season highly resembles their 2012 championship effort where he kicked off the Chase with his only Chicago victory to date. They will debut a brand new chassis this weekend and really do appear to be ready to chase the Sprint Cup. A strong start at Chicago coming on the heels of Richmond where they were virtually unbeatable would give them a huge advantage moving forward both on track and psychologically in the minds of those teams chasing them for the title. To win the Cup, everyone will have to prove they can beat the #2 Penske team and Brad Keselowski.

Jeff Gordon
JW: The dominant driver in the past couple months had seen a few missteps in the last two races prior to Richmond. But, Jeff Gordon returned to form with a solid runner-up finish to the now point standings leader, Brad Keselowski. Gordon leads the series in top ten finishes and is tied for second in wins. Scoring points and capturing wins are a priority now with three race mini-seasons in the new Chase. Moving through the opening Challenger section of the Chase should be no problem for Gordon as Chicagoland, New Hampshire and Dover are great tracks for him. Gordon’s Chicagoland stats in 13 events include one win and an 11.6 average finish. It will be interesting to see how each Chase team comes “out of the box” at Chicagoland and I expect the #24 team to come out swinging.

Jimmie Johnson
DM: The Chase time is traditionally Jimmie Johnson time and after weeks of being in somewhat of a slumber, Chicago could be where the defending Sprint Cup champion wakes up. He’s a 6-1 favorite to win this weekend, at one of the few tracks he has yet to score a victory. He came close a few years ago but was beaten by Kyle Busch in a green-white-checkered finish. Johnson does own the best driver rating at Chicago and has raced well on the 1.5 mile tracks, capturing the victory in the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte. Overall he owns seven top five finishes at Chicago and the added Chase pressure has motivated both Johnson and the #48 team in the past. If the #se7en hash tag is to have any meaning, Johnson needs to come out of the box swinging and remind everyone he is still a major threat to win the Sprint Cup title.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.
JW: Dale Earnhardt Jr has been real quiet as of late. Earnhardt started off the season with the Daytona 500 win, solidified his place in the Chase with a win at Pocono in June and completed the Pocono sweep in early August. Between those wins he had a great March and June and solid but not spectacular finishes the rest of the season. My question is will the #88 team turn up the volume and fire up for the Chase? The entire season so far may have been one big test session for the team and they could whoop the field with a dominant run. One other question is how the team would deal with adversity in one of the three race seasons. Junior has only had four finishes of 24th or worse in the 26 race regular season this year and those misfortunes never hurt his Chase chances. Of course the other way to look at it is, with the finishes Earnhardt has been putting up, they should skate through the opening “seasons” of the Chase with ease.

Joey Logano
DM: While much of the attention has been focused on Penske driver Brad Keselowski, teammate Joey Logano has rattled off the best season of his career with three victories, including one at the 1.5 mile track in Texas. While his Chicagoland stats have been less than stellar, Logano does have three top five finishes in the races on the similar 1.5 mile tracks and the team will bring a brand new chassis to Chicago. I think Joey Logano and the #22 team are the wildcards in this year’s Chase and while most of the attention is turned elsewhere, could easily rattle off some wins and possibly sneak off with the title. He’s listed at 8-1 odds for the race win this weekend and based on this team’s performance so far this season, has a strong legitimate shot to nail down victory number four this weekend at Chicago.

Kyle Busch
JW: One of the most interesting stories of the season has been the Joe Gibbs Racing team. All three drivers have made the Chase with Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin victories and Matt Kenseth’s points. But the team hasn’t shown the speed or consistency of last season. Kyle Busch in particular just seems to be off and unhappy. Busch has the second best driver rating for Chicagoland heading into this weekend including one win, four top five finishes and an average finish of 12.1 in nine races. But this season’s overall stats are one win and an average finish of 18.2, not what you would expect from Busch. The latest talk is that JGR has found some speed and not just in their air guns. Chicagoland will be a great test to see how they stack up as each driver looks to move forward in the Chase.

Aric Almirola
DM: My long shot pick this week at Chicago is Aric Almirola who begins his first Chase by virtue of his Daytona win in July. Almirola is listed at a whopping 300-1 odds to win at Chicago this weekend but his finishes on the 1.5 mile circuits haven’t been too bad with two top ten results at Kansas and Atlanta to go along with 11th and 12th place finishes at Charlotte and Texas. He finished 17th and 13th in his only two Chicago starts but this team has shown speed this season. Being in the Chase and all the pressure that goes with it either motivates a team or forces them to make mistakes and how Almirola and the #43 team handle that pressure will determine their fate in the 2014 Chase. A strong start at Chicago will go a long way toward alleviating that pressure as the Chase rolls on.

AJ Allmendinger
JW: AJ Allmendinger has raced in only five Chicagoland Sprint Cup races and has not finished in the top ten in either of them. Allmendinger’s average finish at Chicagoland is 17.6, which is not the worst of the Chase contenders – there are four divers with worse averages. Allmendinger made the Chase based on a road course win and drives for a one car team, the only one in the Chase. So, it seems like he may not belong. But Allmendinger is a true racer and has had some spectacular finishes in many different series and cars, including three victories in a row in the Champ Car Series as well as a 24 Hours of Daytona victory. Allmendinger won’t take this opportunity lightly and I expect him to surprise a lot of people in the Chase. AJ will get everything out of the JTG-Daughtery Racing Chevrolet that is possible and it will be fun to see how far that takes him.

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