Mash The Gas: Chicagoland Preview

Ryan Newman and Matt Kenseth at Chicagoland Speedway for the start of the 2014 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Chase. [Credit: Chris Graythen/NASCAR via Getty Images]

by Dan Margetta and John Wiedemann

The Chase for the Sprint Cup begins this weekend as the Chicagoland Speedway kicks off the 2015 edition of NASCAR’s playoffs with the MyAFibRisk.com 400 Sunday afternoon.

The Chicagoland Speedway is a 1.5 mile oval that mirrors several on the circuit and typically drivers who have good results on those type of tracks also have success in The Chase which features five races on the 1.5 milers. This season however, the races on the 1.5 mile ovals have been conducted under different aerodynamic rules which revert back to those rules used to begin the season as the Chase starts. A good run and more importantly a victory is extremely important for the Chase drivers as they try to survive the playoff system and make it to the next round. Here are some drivers to watch as the Chase for the Sprint Cup begins…

Matt Kenseth (Dan Margetta)
The 2013 Chicagoland winner is the hottest driver on the circuit coming into the Chase as Matt Kenseth has won three of the last six races. He is also coming off a dominating performance last week at Richmond and over the past several weeks Kenseth’s #20 team has consistently been one of the best speed wise. Matt Kenseth is listed at 8-1 odds to win this weekend and he should have a strong following in the grandstands as the Chicago track is the closest the circuit comes to his large Wisconsin home-state fan base. The main question mark for Kenseth this week is with the old aero rules in place, how well will he run on the 1.5 mile Chicago track as earlier in the season, this team struggled a bit under those old rules. Sunday’s MyAFibRisk.com 400 should be a good test and indicator if the recent surge of Kenseth and his Joe Gibbs Racing teammates will put their early season struggles on the 1.5 mile tracks in the rearview mirror once and for all.

Joey Logano (John Wiedemann)
Joey Logano was a big favorite to win the championship last season and is in the same position again this season. Chicagoland is the best place to start for the Team Penske driver and a win this weekend, just like his teammate did last season, kick starts a drivers Chase like nothing else. Logano has three wins this season with all of them coming on tracks other than a mile and a half type track. Team Penske was dominant on the intermediate tracks last season but the torch seems to have been taken away by Joe Gibbs Racing. Can Team Penske get it back? We will have a good idea at the end of this weekend.

Brad Keselowski (DM)
Brad Keselowski is the defending Chicagoland race winner as he kicked off last season’s Chase with a victory here. This year Keselowski and the #2 team have upped their game at the right time as he rides a streak of nine straight top ten finishes into the Chase. Keselowski is listed at 6-1 odds this week and he should be someone to watch on Sunday as he has won two out of the last three Chicagoland races. Brad Keselowski hasn’t won since the California race back in March where he only led a single lap, but don’t be fooled, Keselowski should be right in the mix as the Chase begins.

Jeff Gordon (JW)
Jeff Gordon has made the Chase in his final season. Now the question is can he stay in the Chase to the end. My prediction is that he makes it into the final four with a spectacular win at Martinsville. But, for that to happen, Gordon needs to make it that far through the first two rounds. Gordon has one victory at Chicagoland along with seven top five and nine top ten finishes in fourteen races. This weekend’s race will be the 788th consecutive race for Gordon, tying Ricky Rudd for the longest streak in NASCAR Sprint Cup Series history. The “Iron Man” start for Gordon will be one of the most important in his illustrious career as he makes his final run in his “Drive For Five” championships.

Jimmie Johnson (DM)
Jimmie Johnson hasn’t turned many heads since his last victory at the end of May and he enters the Chicagoland Chase race at 12-1 odds to win. However, this week the old aerodynamic rules are back and under them, Johnson won three of the first four races held on the 1.5 mile ovals. Plus Johnson holds the best average finishing position at Chicago at 9.2. With a new contract extension in hand, look for Jimmie Johnson and the #48 team to be focused on bouncing back from their recent slump with a mission to remind everyone they have won six of these championships and should not be forgotten.

Kevin Harvick (JW)
The top teams at the moment seem to be Joe Gibbs Racing, Team Penske and Stewart-Haas Racing, in that order. SHR’s top driver, Kevin Harvick, was the class of the field in the beginning of the season battling Team Penske for pole positions and showing top speed on the track on raceday. After cliching a position in the Chase early, it is now time for Harvick to get back into gear and grab some race wins. The 2014 and reigning NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Champion has two wins and great stats at Chicagoland Speedway and is ready to defend his championship against any team. I predict Harvick to be there at the end of the Chase so expect him to start it off strong this weekend.

Ryan Newman (DM)
While wins guarantee drivers a chance to move to the next Chase round, the system also rewards consistency and Ryan Newman played that card to near perfection last season as he rode top finishes all the way to the final. This season Newman is back once again winless in the Chase field and the strategy looks to be the same. He is listed at 60-1 odds to win this weekend and like he has all season, should hover around the top fifteen all day with a chance to pull off an upset win. Newman has one Chicago victory and seven top ten finishes but don’t expect him to take too many gambles in search of another win. Instead watch for this team to race smart and be there at the end, taking what the day will give them as they advance their way forward in the Chase. It was good enough to make it all the way to Homestead last season and starting Sunday we will see if it holds true for this season as well.

Martin Truex Jr. (JW)
Martin Truex Jr. has had a tremendous season and started strong as he finally was able to improve of a slew of top five finishes to grab a victory at Pocono in June. I am actually predicting that he doesn’t make it out of the first round of the Chase, so Truex can prove me wrong with a great finish or possibly a win at Chicagoland. The second half of the season has been a roller coaster of results for Truex with a number of really low lows. That is the reason for my prediction, I just don’t see the consistency that Truex and the Furniture Row team showed early in 2015 and the Chase demands consistency at the top of the leader board. So, prove me wrong Martin.

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