Mash The Gas: California Preview

Jimmie Johnson leads the pack at Auto Club Speedway. [Tom Pennington/NASCAR via Getty Images]

by Dan Margetta and John Wiedemann

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series wraps up its West Coast swing this weekend at the Auto Club Speedway in Fontana, California for the Auto Club 400.

The California track is a wide and fast two mile oval unique in its own ways from the 1.5 mile circuit in Las Vegas and the flat track in Phoenix which made up the earlier legs of the swing out West. There is plenty of room to race at California and the cars could fan out to four or five wide on restarts.

The 2015 rules package has decreased horsepower but at the same time has increased corner speeds significantly so the mad rush into the first turn should be fun to watch. After several teams experienced tire issues late in last year’s event, the drivers will race on a new left side tire compound developed after a test last October which is supposed to improve grip.

So far, Kevin Harvick has been perfect, winning the opening events of the swing and he will try to complete the sweep Sunday in the Auto Club 400.

Here are some story lines to watch for as the NASCAR Sprint Cup series drivers take on the Auto Club Speedway in Fontana, California…

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (Dan Margetta)
I know Kevin Harvick is the hot ticket right now but one guy that can very well put an end to his streak is Dale Earnhardt Jr. That’s right…Dale Earnhardt Jr., who has never won at California and has an unimpressive average finishing position of 19.5. However, except for the bad luck tire issue last week at Phoenix, Dale Jr. has been one of the few drivers to keep Kevin Harvick in his sights, having finished fourth in Atlanta and third in Las Vegas. Earnhardt’s crew chief Greg Ives has been a huge addition this year and he seems to work well with last year’s lead engineer Kevin Meendering and as a result the team’s performance has picked up significantly. Sitting at 8-1 odds this week, Dale Earnhardt Jr. will drive a brand new chassis and may be overlooked when it comes to picking a winner this week. Don’t be surprised if Dale Earnhardt Jr. is the driver to break the Harvick win streak at California.

Kevin Harvick (John Wiedemann)
It is tournament time and the “chalk pick” for the NASCAR race in California is definitely Kevin Harvick. Seven races in a row finishing in the top two and five wins in the last races has the champion continuing form into this season with no signs of slowing down. Harvick’s stats at California are pretty stout as well, averaging sixth or seventh amongst his competitors with one win, four top five and nine top ten finishes in 21 starts at his hometown track. Stats are great, but the eyeball test will tell you that Harvick is just flat out-running his competition right now and they really aren’t competition anymore. The “chalk pick” doesn’t always win but there is a big reason why Harvick is the favorite, he is in the zone and freaky fast.

Matt Kenseth (DM)
Matt Kenseth is listed at 12-1 odds to win this week at a California track where he has had much success in the past. He has three victories at Auto Club Speedway to go along with nine top five finishes and fifteen top ten results. The team has also been consistent so far in 2015 but on Sunday it will be one year since a Joe Gibbs Racing team has won on a non-restrictor plate track (Kenseth’s teammate Kyle Busch won this race a year ago). Kenseth likes the California track as evidenced by his strong record here and this weekend would be a good time to return to victory lane and punch his ticket early into the Chase.

Jimmie Johnson (JW)
If it wasn’t for blown tires, a run in with former teammate Brian Vickers, and pit road incidents including getting together with Carl Edwards and a penalty at Daytona, Jimmie Johnson would be having a good year. He actually still is having a good year after multiple runs from the back of the pack to score solid finishes. If those types of issues don’t happen at California this weekend, the rest of the drivers might be in for quite a long day. Johnson is the series leader in wins at California with five, including his first Cup Series win 13 years ago, and could very well add to that total this weekend. Johnson and the 48 team have been fast all season and already have a victory (Atlanta). The problem has been that a penalty sent them back at Daytona, tire issues ruined their Las Vegas day and damage on lap one hindered their results at Phoenix. Could they have given Harvick a run for his money? We won’t know. But, California is a new chance to see what Johnson can do.

Kyle Larson (DM)
The wide Auto Club Speedway suites Kyle Larson’s style perfectly as the 22 year old is known for using all grooves of a track to find the fast way around. In his only Cup start here, he finished a strong second and nearly shocked the world with an early season win a year ago. Larson is listed at 20-1 odds this weekend and he has shown speed already this season on track at Atlanta and Las Vegas where he led practice sessions before tailing off in the races. If late in the race he has a car he can charge to the front with, expect Larson to use every inch of track possible and put on a show. The tricky part will be to get in that position to challenge for the win and if this team is able to do that, Kyle Larson could very well score his first career victory on Sunday.

Kurt Busch (JW)
Without his team owner’s crash and following caution, Kurt Busch may have completed a one-two finish for Stewart-Haas Racing at Phoenix. Busch pitted while leader Kevin Harvick stayed out and Busch was only able to race into the top five in the closing laps. While the runner up finish would have been pretty special, the top five run for his first race of the year was a great finish for Busch. Needing to be in the top 30 to qualify for the Chase, which starts 22 races from now, Busch is already in 33rd and just seventeen points out of the cutoff spot. The other thing Busch needs to do is win to have a shot at making the Chase. This weekend, as well as next, are great tracks for Busch to find victory lane.

Kasey Kahne (DM)
Through the opening four races in 2015, Kasey Kahne and the #5 team have quietly been the best performing Hendrick Motorsports combination and their strong early momentum should carry over to California. Kahne has a single victory here to go along with four top five results and ten finishes inside the top ten. He is listed at 12-1 odds and should be a factor on Sunday as it looks like he works well with new crew chief Keith Rodden. In the past Kahne traditionally would start out the slow before coming on strong at the end and this year he is already challenging for wins early. Another strong run this weekend in California could pay off in a victory and put Kasey Kahne in the Chase earlier than he has ever been in his career.

Clint Bowyer (JW)
Clint Bowyer is currently in the top fifteen in the point standings and it will be interesting to see how he fares this weekend at California. While he hasn’t been spectacular at the track, he has been a solid finisher. In 14 races Bowyer has finished in the top ten seven times and averaged a 12.9 finish, ranking him third of the drivers currently in the top 16 in the standings. Unfortunately, all those top ten finishes were with Richard Childress Racing and not his current team Michael Waltrip Racing. Since his seventh place run at Daytona, Bowyer has three finishes in the 20’s. Now is the time for Bowyer to turn it around and avoid another lost season.

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