Mash The Gas: Atlanta Preview

by Dan Margetta and John Wiedemann

Labor Day Weekend signals an end to Summer and for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series it means time is running out to make the Chase for the Sprint Cup as the Atlanta Motor Speedway hosts the Oral-B USA 500 Sunday night.

This will be the final stop for the circuit in Atlanta on Labor Day Weekend as next season the date goes back to its traditional home at Darlington while the Atlanta event will become the second race of the season.

Atlanta is another of the 1.5 mile tracks which features multiple grooves and long sweeping turns, making it one of the most competitive tracks on the tour.

There are just two events left for those drivers without a victory and not enough points to make the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup and those already in the big dance will be looking for all important Chase victory bonus points, meaning everyone has one thing on their mind…Win the race.

Here are some drivers to watch Sunday night…

Joey Logano
(Dan Margetta): Joey Logano has been on a tear lately, capped off by scoring the victory last week at Bristol for his third win of the season. Logano won earlier this year at Texas which is a track similar to Atlanta and in the last month has not finished worse than 6th with two third place results to go along with last week’s win. He seems to fit very well with his #22 Penske team and right now is one of the hottest drivers on the circuit. Listed at 8-1 odds to win this weekend, Logano is peaking at the right moment to be considered a major player in the championship hunt. He should have plenty of speed to get through Atlanta’s fast corners and is definitely a favorite for the victory on Sunday night.

Jeff Gordon
(John Wiedemann): Still at the top of the hill heading into the Chase, Jeff Gordon could take another step above the rest with a win in the next two races. Atlanta Motor Speedway was the first track for Gordon to race a (at that time Winston Cup) NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race and this weekend will be his 750th start in the series.  Gordon has done well at Atlanta with the highest driver rating for active drivers as well as 25 top ten finishes, 16 top five runs, five 2nd place finishes and five wins in his 40 career races at the track. Add the fact that one of Gordon’s wins came at Kansas, another 1.5 mile track, with a fifth place average at the 1.5’s and you can expect him to give Team Penske a run at the front. I’m picking Gordon to win his series leading fourth race of the season.

Brad Keselowski
DM: If Joey Logano doesn’t find victory lane this weekend at Atlanta, chances are his Penske teammate Brad Keselowski will. Like Logano, Keselowski has also performed very well on the 1.5 mile tracks so far this season with victories at Las Vegas and Kentucky. The Penske cars have been among the strongest all season long and Keselowski is listed as a favorite with the oddsmakers, coming in at 6-1 for Atlanta. This team appears ready to challenge for the championship and should be in store for another strong race Sunday night in Atlanta.

Jimmie Johnson
JW: Jimmie Johnson has continued to quietly run ok in the last few races. With a top ten at Michigan and top five finish at Bristol, Johnson has found his way back to the front at the end of races. The dominance has been lacking though as Johnson led some at Michigan and not at all at Bristol. Results at the 1.5 mile tracks have been good for Johnson, discounting being caught up in teammate Dale Earnhardt Jr’s debris early in the race at Texas. The Chase is looming and Johnson is starting to heat back up again. Will he be able to re-create the momentum that saw him win three of four races in May and June. We’ll have to watch and see.

Kevin Harvick
DM: Kevin Harvick is also listed as a favorite for this weekend’s race in Atlanta as the odds makers have given him a 6-1 chance for the victory. Harvick has raced well on the 1.5 mile tracks this season, scoring second place finishes at both Kansas and Charlotte. Despite not finding victory lane since April, Harvick has strung together some impressive races as his worst finish in the last month has been 11th. Harvick and the #4 team have consistently produced fast race cars at just about every track and Atlanta should see another strong run. Harvick has an Atlanta victory to his credit, as he won the 2001 thriller over Jeff Gordon in his third career start shortly after the death of Dale Earnhardt Sr. While this team has raced well in the last few weeks, they do need a victory to remind everyone they are strong championship contenders and Atlanta could be just the place to make that statement.

Clint Bowyer
JW: Clint Bowyer needs a win. Bowyer has six top ten finishes in the last ten races, but that is just not going to cut it, he needs a win. Three 23rd place finishes at mile and a half tracks and a best finish of eighth at Texas does not inspire confidence in a win this weekend at Atlanta. Maybe next weekend at Richmond is Bowyer’s run at redemption. But why can’t it be this weekend? Bowyer has five top ten finishes at Atlanta, but his average run is 19.8. Other stats aren’t very promising either. It is “do or do not” time and Bowyer needs to “do” to get in the Chase and salvage a lack luster season.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.
DM: There are certain tracks that Dale Earnhardt Jr. seems to be very good at and Atlanta fits that bill as its fast speeds and sweeping corners fit his driving style. He has one Atlanta victory in his career and 12 top ten finishes. The odds makers list Dale Jr. at 10-1 odds this week and he has raced strong at the other 1.5 miles tracks this season as he has three top five finishes in those events. 2014 has been one of his strongest seasons to date and Junior Nation has had lots to cheer about so far. It’s now crunch time as we come to Atlanta and if Earnhardt Jr. and the #88 team are serious about capturing his first Sprint Cup, the time is now to start peaking as the Chase is about to begin. In 2004, Dale Jr. had that championship in sight in Atlanta as all the other contenders had problems in that event while Junior raced for the lead. However a few laps later, Dale Jr. also found himself in trouble as he crashed while going for the lead and the mistake most likely cost him the title. Earnhardt is much wiser now and like ten years ago, Atlanta could be pivotal in his championship bid.

Matt Kenseth
JW: Although Matt Kenseth is a pretty safe bet to make the Chase. Even if two drivers won for the first time this season and grabbed spots in the Chase, Kenseth is still out front of the winless drivers with a 41 point lead over Ryan Newman. In fact, Kenseth just needs to score 32 points at Atlanta, about a 12th place finish, to seal up a Chase invite. With all the turmoil and issues at Joe Gibbs Racing, a Kenseth win would be a nice boost heading into the Chase. All three JGR drivers look to be part of the 16 driver Chase, but how long they will last is a question. Results have improved recently for Kenseth – but a win is a win. And now would be a great time to get one.

Carl Edwards
DM: At 30-1 odds for Atlanta this week, Carl Edwards looks like a steal as Atlanta has been a decent track for him and the #99 team and I’m making him my long shot pick this weekend. Edwards has had mixed results on the 1.5 mile tracks this season with top five finishes at Las Vegas, Charlotte, and Kansas while finishing 14th at Texas and 17th at Kentucky. A few weeks ago at Michigan, the Roush-Fenway teams showed they have made up their horsepower disadvantage from earlier in the season and it should show again this weekend at Atlanta. Edwards has an Atlanta victory, capturing his first career win here in an exciting finish over Jimmie Johnson and I think he will be a contender on Sunday. I know Edwards is leaving the team at the end of the season and crew chief Jimmy Fennig is rumored to be retiring from the road but Atlanta could be a last ‘hurrah’ of sorts for them as they prepare to make a run for the Championship. Don’t count out Carl Edwards this weekend despite the high odds.

Kasey Kahne/Kyle Larson
JW: I’m torn with these two drivers. Either driver could win at Atlanta and put themselves into the Chase. At this point in the season, a win looks like the only way that either will get into the Chase. Kyle Larson is 26 points behind current Chase bubble holder Greg Biffle. That is a lot of points to get in two races. Kasey Kahne is another seven points behind Larson. So points are probably not going to be the rout either uses to get into the Chase. Kahne is a driver that has a ton of mile and a half racetrack success and a 9th place average finish on those type of tracks this season. Larson is a driver that has had some success on the 1.5’s this season. Larson struggled to get through June and that hurt his point standings position. Kahne started picking up the pace in June. Heading into Atlanta, both drivers find themselves in the same place – needing a win. My money would be on Kahne, but honestly a win from either would be surprising.

Dan Margetta

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