Kansas Preview

Kevin Harvick leads the field to the green flag to start the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series 5-Hour Energy 400 at Kansas Speedway in 2014.  [Credit: Todd Warshaw/NASCAR via Getty Images]

 

By Dan Margetta and John Wiedemann

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series returns to the “bread and butter” of its schedule, a 1.5 mile tri-oval as the Kansas Speedway hosts the SpongeBob SquarePants 400 (one of the more fun and unusual race names of the season) on Saturday night.

The Kansas circuit has a layout similar to those in Las Vegas, Charlotte, and Texas and these “cookie cutter” tracks make up eleven races on the tour. Kansas is the fourth event of the season on a 1.5 mile layout and drivers that have performed well in the previous three races in Atlanta, Las Vegas, and Texas should also be strong here.

With eight different winners in the first ten races of 2015, Chase slots are filling up fast but the chances for a repeat winner this weekend are high as certain drivers have seemed to shine on the 1.5 mile tracks.

Here are a few to watch on Saturday night…

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (Dan Margetta)
Dale Earnhardt Jr. is heading to Kansas on a wave of momentum following his Talladega triumph last weekend. He has had strong performances on the 1.5 mile tracks this season, having finished fourth or better in all three previous events. At Kansas he has yet to win but has two top five finishes and eight top ten results, netting him at 10-1 odds this weekend. The team will bring the same chassis Dale Jr. drove in Atlanta where he challenged for the win before finishing a strong third. Junior Nation is pumped and don’t be surprised if their euphoria continues as Dale Earnhardt Jr. could easily rattle off two in a row this weekend at Kansas.

Kevin Harvick (John Wiedemann)
With a win and two second place finishes in the three previous mile and a half track races this season, Kevin Harvick is my pick to win on Saturday night at Kansas Speedway. Of course Harvick has been pretty awesome at other tracks as well this season, but his cookie-cutter track results in 2015 and results at Kansas are better than anyone else not named Jimmie Johnson. With two wins in his pocket and a spot on top of the standings, Harvick is already a lock to make the Chase. So look for him to be gunning for wins and racking them up the rest of the season and look for the #4 in victory lane at Kansas.

Jimmie Johnson (DM)
Jimmie Johnson already owns two victories on 1.5 mile tracks this season and he brings a strong record into Kansas with a 9.5 average finishing position to go along with two wins and top ten finishes in 14 of his 17 starts. Johnson is listed at 6-1 odds to win this weekend and should be a strong contender, despite not having won here in four years. Johnson was dominant when it counted at Atlanta earlier this year and he drove to a convincing win. Look for more of the same Saturday night in Kansas as Johnson goes for his series leading third win of the season.

Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski (JW)
I’m including both Team Penske drivers together because they seem to be finishing in the same area at mile and a half tracks. Joey Logano has been the quicker driver of the two in qualifying at 1.5 mile tracks with a pole run at Atlanta and front row start at Las Vegas. But Brad Keselowski has found his way back into the top ten at the end of all three cookie cutter races. Both drivers have won at Kansas Speedway in the past and Keselowski holds a slightly better statistical advantage over Logano. Both drivers also have wins this season, setting themselves up for a Chase run. Expect a solid top ten run for both drivers this weekend. Can one of them win? I wouldn’t predict that. Even though these guys were at the top of the 1.5 mile drivers last season, that hasn’t held true in 2015 so far.

Martin Truex Jr. (DM)
Martin Truex Jr.’s 2015 resurrection continues as he has driven the Furniture Row #78 to top ten finishes in nine of the first ten races. With a record like that, the good runs are anything but a fluke and this team along with new crew chief Cole Pearn is definitely one to be reckoned with. Truex is listed at 20-1 odds for Kansas this week which seems like a good bargain when one remembers his strong second place finish at Las Vegas to go along with top ten results in Atlanta and Texas. Truex doesn’t have a Kansas win yet but has finished second here on two occasions. With the way he is running this season it seems to be a matter of when rather than if Truex will find victory lane and Saturday night could very well be where Truex and the #78 team find victory lane.

Matt Kenseth (JW)
While Texas was a big misstep for Matt Kenseth, Atlanta and Las Vegas were solid runs for the Toyota driver. We are still waiting for him to return to the role of consistent front-runner but his Bristol win puts him in a comfortable position regarding the Chase. Seeing Kenseth and the Joe Gibbs Racing drivers run well at the mile and a half tracks would be a good sign that they will be ready for the Chase and able to contend for the Championship. With two wins, six top five and ten top ten finishes and the second best driver ranking at Kansas, Kenseth knows what the car needs to compete at that track. This weekend will be a good indication as to where the Joe Gibbs Racing team is at. Can they compete with the Hendrick and Stewart-Haas drivers? That is the question.

Paul Menard (DM)
While Martin Truex Jr. is a legitimate long shot pick this week, I’m making Paul Menard at 100-1 odds as my real long shot choice. Menard has top ten finishes at Kansas in four of his last five races and is coming off a strong third place finish at Talladega. Menard and new crew chief Justin Alexander, who advanced from an engineering role, have just begun to connect and their performance on track reflects that as they currently sit 11th in points. That continuous improvement is enough for me to give them a chance this weekend at Kansas as my long shot pick.

Jamie McMurray (JW)
My long shot pick is Jamie McMurray this weekend, even though he shouldn’t really be considered a long shot. McMurray has three top ten runs at what could be considered a home track for the Missouri driver. But this season has been pretty good for McMurray as he currently sits seventh in the standings with two top five and four top ten finishes. McMurray finished sixth in the last 1.5 mile track race in Texas and should be in contention again this weekend.

 

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