Homestead-Miami Championship Preview

by Dan Margetta and John Wiedemann

After nine grueling weeks and three ultra-intense elimination rounds, it all comes down to the Ford EcoBoost 400 Sunday afternoon at the Homestead-Miami Speedway as for the first time, the final four remaining drivers in the 2014 Chase for the Sprint Cup battle it out for this year’s crown in a one-race, winner take all finale.

Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin, and Ryan Newman have emerged as the Championship 4 contenders and the highest finisher among them on Sunday will be crowned NASCAR Sprint Cup Champion. Neither of the four have won the title previously so a first time champion will emerge at Homestead.

How will it all shake out? No one really knows… but after previewing each race all season long, we will list our championship predictions with the final four drivers and how we think the 2014 Sprint Cup championship will play out in the Ford EcoBoost 400 on Sunday at the Homestead-Miami Speedway…

Fourth Place:
Ryan Newman (Dan Margetta): When this new format was announced, the odds against someone winning the championship without a single victory were astronomical but Ryan Newman has a chance to pull off the impossible as he has yet to win this season but now has a 25% chance to become the champion. While winning was emphasized this year, consistency still does matter and Newman has done just enough to advance to the finals despite leading only a total of 41 laps all season. Much like the Tortoise and the Hare fable, the fastest car doesn’t always necessarily win and not to imply Newman has been a tortoise all season, but while the others were busy beating and banging on each other, Newman has quietly slipped his way into the final four with strong consistent finishes. No matter what road he took to get here, he did earn it and has played by the same rules as everyone else. However, I feel that in order to win this championship, you have to run up front and challenge for the lead all day, something Newman and the #31 team have not done to date this season. Also, Newman’s best Homestead result has been a third place finish back in 2012. Now the other three could conceivably all take each other out while battling for this crown, but barring any bad luck from the other three drivers, I think Ryan Newman finishes somewhere between 8th-12th and comes up short on Sunday. Then again, as we found out last weekend, when positions are needed late in the race, Newman’s front bumper comes into play which could blow this theory completely out of the water, much like he’s about to possibly do to NASCAR’s theory that someone has to win to be champion.

Ryan Newman (John Wiedemann): Looking at how Ryan Newman has run this year, I can’t pick him over the other championship contenders. The will to win is definitely there. Listening to him being interviewed earlier in the Chase, his response to the ever persistent question about remaining in the Chase field, Newman said the reason was because he “wanted” to win. That confidence and desire came to the surface on the last lap at Phoenix as Newman used up Kyle Larson to grab the position he needed to make the Chase. Other than that desire, the speed and handling of Newman’s Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet has not been on par with the top contenders week in and week out. Another strike against the team is that they missed the Homestead test that the other championship contenders were able to attend. That being said, how can Newman win? I suspect that Newman will be running near the top ten at the end of the race. If mechanical issues or pit road mistakes attack the other teams, Newman could coast to the championship. I just don’t see it happening.

Third Place:
Kevin Harvick (DM): Kevin Harvick has finished in the top ten in 11 of his 13 races at Homestead with a best finish of 2nd in 2003 and 2008. Those are pretty good numbers for a guy who has won four races this year and has been one of the fastest cars on the track week in and week out. However, too many times this season, this team has made self-inflicted mistakes and many victories were lost because they found a way to beat themselves. Harvick is the guy everyone is shooting for this weekend at Homestead and he is considered the favorite to win it all. That’s a lot of extra pressure on this team and they will need to stay focused. It’s also a bit of a different zone for Harvick to be in as well as he is usually the one dishing out the barbs and creating the pressure for his rivals. This week he will have to deflect all that is thrown at him as well as keep his cool internally with the team should things not go according to their game plan. With no bonus points available for the final four drivers all that matters is the end result and for a team that has led way more laps than anyone else this year without the victories to show for it, it’s not a comfortable situation. I think Kevin Harvick will definitely be a player on Sunday but I can’t forget how they have come unraveled so many times this season when things go less than perfect. The crew swap prior to the Chase has helped some but ultimately I think Kevin Harvick’s championship will be won or lost on pit road and I can see a late race miscue being the cause of their undoing. It’s up to Harvick and the team to prove me wrong…and they just might.

Joey Logano (JW): Joey Logano is certainly one of the favorites for the championship but I just don’t think this is his year. Logano has the worst average finish (20.8) at Homestead among the final four and has only raced at the track five times in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series. The pressure hasn’t really been on Logano in the Chase rounds until the recent Eliminator Round where he almost melted down when his team had a pit stop miscue. The pressure will be huge in this race and it will be interesting to see how the 24 year old racer handles it. Team Penske has been the best at mile and a half tracks and that will help as the NASCAR team looks to match the IndyCar side of the campus who won the championship in that series with Will Power. How’s that for adding more pressure? Logano winning the championship would make him only the third driver under the age of 25 in the history of the top NASCAR division to grab the title. There is a reason that there are only two so far. So, if Logano does win, the championship will be a huge accomplishment and very deserving when you look at the season Joey has had. And, the nickname “Sliced Bread” will be very fitting.

Second Place:
Denny Hamlin (DM): Like Ryan Newman, Denny Hamlin has had a less than stellar year, even missing a race, although he did capture a lone victory at Talladega in May. Hamlin’s record at Homestead has been pretty good however and he is the defending race winner. He has one other Homestead victory to his credit and is the only one of the four contenders to win here. He has five top ten finishes in nine starts and while his season stats everywhere else haven’t been great, Homestead remains one his best tracks. Unlike 2010, where Hamlin came to Homestead as a favorite to unseat Jimmie Johnson and ultimately faltered under the pressure, this season Hamlin has nothing to lose and everything to gain. The Gibbs cars had a strong test at Homestead as well. There also has been garage talk speculating the future between Hamlin and crew chief Darien Grubb who has said he will stay with the organization, but hasn’t committed to Hamlin for next season. Grubb was in a similar spot here at Homestead in 2011 with his then driver, Tony Stewart, and he promptly guided Stewart to the race win and championship. I think Denny Hamlin is the surprise of the day on Sunday and makes a strong run for the championship but comes up just a little bit short at the checkered flag.

Denny Hamlin (JW): Another somewhat surprise to the Final Four, Denny Hamlin missed a race, won a race and battled through each elimination to get to where he is now. Hamlin has two wins at Homestead and is the defending champion of this race. While the entire season has not been spectacular for the Joe Gibbs Racing, the team has improved in the Chase and Hamlin has a lot of confidence heading into Homestead-Miami Speedway. Hamlin has been in a position like this before when he battled Jimmie Johnson for the championship in 2010. Hamlin had a 15 point advantage over Johnson but a horrible weekend doomed his chances. After the race Hamlin believed he blew the championship and his results the following season were that of a beaten driver. Recovering from that situation as well as a broken back in March of last season, Hamlin’s win in last year’s finale started a comeback that has him back in contention for a championship. I would choose him as the Champion but I don’t believe his Toyota has the performance to match up with Kevin Harvick’s Chevrolet. But, one slip by Harvick and Denny could finally capture the Cup.

2014 Sprint Cup Champion:
Joey Logano (DM): 2014 has been Joey Logano’s year and he and the #22 Penske team have proven to be the team that has ran up front the most consistently. Logano has had one of the best cars at every race contested on the 1.5 mile tracks and has five wins on the season to show for it. There will be a question on how well the young Logano will handle the championship pressure and increased scrutiny this weekend but so far this season he has showed remarkable maturity and really has come into his own as a victory contender week in and week out. His best Homestead finish is an 8th place result which was last season, his first with his Penske team. This team and driver rattled off consecutive top five finishes like no one else this season and I think they turn that performance into a championship on Sunday. He has come a long way from being the guy that replaced Tony Stewart and Sunday is Joey Logano’s moment to shine. I look for Joey Logano to hoist the Sprint Cup on Sunday in Homestead as your 2014 champion. That is unless Kevin Harvick runs a perfect race or Denny Hamlin utilizes his Homestead winning experience, or Ryan Newman calmly rides by them all…

Kevin Harvick (JW): The situation this weekend will be somewhat like a broken record for Kevin Harvick. Harvick has faced Chase elimination races from the bottom of the grid and rose to the occasion each time to move forward. Last weekend’s race at Phoenix was a win or be eliminated situation for Harvick and he spent the weekend at the top of the speed charts and then went out to dominate the race on Sunday. I expect the same at Homestead-Miami this weekend. Harvick moved over to Stewart-Haas Racing this season and hit the ground running with his new team, dominating the second points race on the schedule. Along the way Harvick has led 2,083 laps and has a driver rating of 109.9, both tops in the series. The mechanical and pit crew problems that plagued Harvick seem to be a thing of the past with the #4 Stewart-Haas team, issues that limited the team to “only” four wins, 13 top five and 19 top ten finishes this season. Racing against his Championship 4 competitors, Harvick beat the combination of Newman, Logano and Hamlin eleven times this season. Harvick has been one of the top teams and clearly one of the fastest on the track all year long. Add owner Tony Stewart’s winning perseverance, guidance and knowledge of what it takes to win the championship by winning the final race of the season. Add Harvick’s past experience of racing for championships, finishing third in three of the last four season standings, and I believe you get this season’s NASCAR Sprint Cup champion.

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