Duck Commander 500 Preview

Start of the race at Texas Motor Speedway in April 2013.  [Todd Warshaw/NASCAR via Getty Images]

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series rides its streak of six different winners in the opening six races into the great state of Texas for the Duck Commander 500 Sunday afternoon at the Texas Motor Speedway.

Texas is another 1.5 mile circuit similar to Las Vegas with higher banking and faster speeds. That means teams that ran well in Vegas should race strong in Texas.

Will there be a seventh different face in victory lane this weekend?

Here are some drivers to watch on Sunday…

Matt Kenseth

Dan Margetta: Anyway you look at it Matt Kenseth is just good at Texas Motor Speedway as he owns the top driver rating among his peers. With two victories and an average finishing position of 7^th, Texas is one of Kenseth’s best tracks. He has top five finishes in nine of his last ten races here, the lone exception being a 12^th place finish last year. The #20 team also ran well in Vegas and without a 2014 victory to date, they are strong candidates to make Kenseth the seventh different winner of the season.

Greg Biffle

John Wiedemann:  If there ever was an example of a driver circling a race on the calendar as one they can’t wait for, look no further than Greg Biffle and Texas Motor Speedway.  Biffle has won twice at Texas, most recently the 2012 spring race.  Prior to the race last fall, where he finished twelfth, Biffle has finished in the top ten since the fall race in 2008 and scored seven top fives in those eleven races.  The season has not been kind to Biffle so far, but he finally led laps last weekend for the first time since Daytona.  Other than those races, the performance has not been there for the 16 team.  This week should prove to be different and Biffle could be the seventh winner on the NASCAR Sprint Cup circuit.

Kevin Harvick

DM:  Back in Vegas, the teams had an open test day to open the weekend and no one was faster than Kevin Harvick. That should make Harvick and the #4 team very strong on the 1.5 mile tracks like Texas. Harvick was leading the Las Vegas race when he ran into mechanical issues. Mechanical gremlins have been a huge issue with this team to date as they have been very fast each week without the finishing results to show for it. If the equipment lasts on Sunday, Harvick could be the first repeat winner of 2014.

Carl Edwards

JW:  Contrary to his teammate’s struggles, Carl Edwards has been running well and is sitting in a good position being third in the standings with one win.  A second win this season would lock Edwards solidly in the Chase.  A three time winner at the Texas track, Edwards has eight top ten finishes and six top fives in eighteen races including a third place run in this event last season.  Look for solid, contending runs from the entire Roush Fenway Racing brigade this weekend.  Another back flip is possible but I expect a top five for Edwards.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.

DM:  After a strong start to the season, Dale Earnhardt Jr. has been quiet of late. Have faith Junior Nation, as that could change on Sunday at Texas. Earnhardt owns one Texas victory from way back in his rookie season in 2000, but he was second here last fall and came within a half lap of victory in Las Vegas before running out of fuel. Dale Jr. seems to thrive on high speed fast racetracks and Texas fits that bill. Dale Earnhardt Jr. would be a popular pick to break the season’s opening six race winners streak.

Jimmie Johnson

JW:  In the last four races at TMS Jimmie Johnson has won twice, finished second, and he finished sixth in this race last spring.  Other than last spring, where he didn’t lead a lap, Johnson led 156 laps, 168 laps and a dominating 255 of 334 laps in the event last fall.  Johnson is still looking for that first victory this season and Texas is a likely place for him to find it.  Of course, those were the same sentiments at the last two races, California and Martinsville.  But, after missing those opportunities Johnson repeated that he feels that the 48 team has not found the sweet spot in the 2014 rules package.  It is both surprising that the team is not there yet as well as it should be a scary thought for the rest of the teams.  Have no doubt that Johnson will be a contender this weekend no matter what.

Joey Logano

DM:  The Penske cars were especially tough in Las Vegas at the last 1.5 mile racetrack and Joey Logano should race strong in Texas. Logano finished fourth in Vegas and last year in his first season in Penske equipment, Texas was one of his best circuits, scoring finishes of 5^th and 3^rd in the two events. Teammate Brad Keselowski picked up the win in Vegas and Texas could be Logano’s turn to find victory lane. The #22 team is still searching for its first win of the season and with the team car already in the Chase, the company focus should be on achieving a victory for Logano to place both cars in the championship hunt.

Kurt Busch

JW:  I struggled to decide if I should put Kurt Busch or Brad Keslowski in this spot as a driver to watch.  Finally I decided that it didn’t matter because if you watch one, the other will be there door to door.  Congratulations to Kurt Busch on his win and also on the way that he achieved the victory.  Putting the Keselowski incident and retaliation behind him, Busch went forward and took on the Martinsville master.  The battle between Busch and Jimmie Johnson was great to watch.  Can Busch do it again?  I believe he can.

Paul Menard

DM:  My long shot pick for this week is Paul Menard who enters the Texas race at 75-1 odds in Las Vegas. Menard was a huge sleeper in the Vegas race, sneaking up on the field to finish third. The team ran well all weekend in Vegas and that could transfer over to Texas. They also have three top ten finishes in the first six races of 2014. Besides, the way this season is going, if Kurt Busch can pull off a long shot 50-1 win last weekend at Martinsville, who’s to say it can’t happen two weekends in a row with Menard.

Austin Dillon

JW:  This weekend should be another featured battle between rookies Austin Dillon and Kyle Larson.  I’m picking Dillon but could easily be swayed towards Larson.  I believe both drivers will pick up a victory this season and a mile and a half track is the likely place it will happen.  Dillon has the edge in past stats and experience with an average finish of fourth in the Nationwide Series at Texas.  But, Larson doesn’t have the track time, a fact that was thrown out the window when Larson battled Kyle Busch for the win in California.  Either way, expect both “rookies” to run up front, contend for the lead and come home with a top ten finish.  I’m still picking Dillon… I think.

Dan Margetta

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